NEW YORK, UNITED STATES — Citrini Research recently released a report labeled “Macro Memo from June 2028.” It reflected a scenario the firm believes would occur if AI continues to dominate the market.
Citrini’s message is clear: AI-driven productivity can cause mass unemployment by collapsing demand and triggering a systemic financial crisis—and the biggest takeaway is that this won’t just affect white-collar workers, as is typically predicted, but the entire labor market, including blue-collar workers.
In a subsequent interview, the memo’s coauthor and CEO of Littlebird.ai, Alap Shah, elaborated,
Let’s say in our scenario, we talk about 5% of folks might get fired in a couple of years. Those 5%, if there aren’t white-collar jobs for them to relocate into, then they’re going to have to move into the gig economy and the blue-collar labor force. And so that puts pressure on the entire labor market, not just the white-collar one.
AI Threat: Inevitable or Manageable?
Following the report, an expected discourse erupted in the market, divided between those who panicked and believed the prediction and those who challenged it.
For one, Citrini’s research aligns with the broader picture most giants have long painted. The CEOs of two of the biggest AI firms, OpenAI’s Sam Altman and Anthropic’s Dario Amodei, have consistently cautioned that AI can threaten the labor market.
Earlier, Microsoft’s AI CEO, Mustafa Suleyman, also spoke up about the potential for a wipeout of white-collar jobs due to automation, given that AI models are close to achieving “human-level performance on most, if not all, professional tasks.”
However, some Wall Street economists and strategists have also stepped into the discussion, challenging Citrini’s scenario. Backed by economic theory, they believe that “productivity booms historically fuel growth—they don’t end it.”
Gerard MacDonell, founder of Front Harbor Macro Research, argues that Citrini’s research ignored a basic economic principle: production creates income, emphasizing the importance of not dismissing established economic reasoning in favor of dramatic narratives.
MacDonell believes that the U.S. economy is far from experiencing a recession and is supply-constrained. The Federal Reserve still has room to cut rates, and a boost in productivity would likely lead to growth rather than cause loss.
